The 2023 Election is Over
But the Counting Goes On
by Jenn Askew
In a previous version of this article, blank votes were not accounted for. This is when a voter turns in a ballot, but only votes on certain races and not others. This has been corrected.
The 2023 General Election has officially ended and the first batch of results have been released by King County and the Secretary of State. For a full rundown of all of the results, check out the County website or the Secretary of State’s site.
We want to focus on the school board races in Tahoma and Kent and where the current numbers might lead. In Tahoma, these are the current results in the three contested races:
| Position | Name | Votes held | Vote % |
| 3 | Malia Hollowell | 3,427 | 64.77% |
| 3 | Stephen “Dutch” Deutschman | 1,846 | 34.89% |
| 4 | Pete Miller | 2,931 | 55.47% |
| 4 | Vincent Powell | 2,338 | 44.25% |
| 5 | Matt Carreon | 2,741 | 51.93% |
| 5 | Patrick Peacock | 2,523 | 47.80% |
And in Kent, these are the current results in the two contested races:
| Position | Name | Votes Held | Vote % |
| 2 | Andy Carter | 6,015 | 40.97% |
| 2 | Meghin Margel | 8,579 | 58.43% |
| 3 | Leslie Kae Hamada | 7,342 | 50.64% |
| 3 | Donald Cook | 7,038 | 48.54% |
Tahoma
In prior years there has been very little change between the day one percentage of votes held by each candidate and the last day percentages. In 2021 it was less than a 1% change. Every year is a little different though, so it’s worth looking at what it would take for each of the currently trailing candidates to win. To skip the basic math and just get to the votes needed to win in Tahoma, scroll down to the Malia vs Dutch heading. Kent is further down, starting with Andy vs Meghin.
The total counted ballots right now in Tahoma stand at 5,623 (though not every voter voted in every race on their ballot). To find some estimates for how many total votes we might expect in this election, I looked at the voting data from the 2019 and 2021 school board elections:
| Year | Day One Count | End Count |
| 2019 | 6,653 | 13,291 |
| 2021 | 7,819 | 14,230 |
| Average | 7,236 | 13,760 |
The average of the votes counted on day one in 2019 and 2021 is 7,236. The number of ballots cast and counted on day one this year is significantly depressed from prior elections. This could be due to a number of reasons: Slower counting by the county, later voting leading to later delivery to the county, or a true decrease in voter participation. Time will tell.
First let’s establish some baseline numbers. To win a race, a candidate will have to earn a plurality of the votes cast. Since “write-in” is an option this complicates things, but if we assume that write-ins are a negligible portion of the votes (there are currently only 14-18 write-ins in the contested races), then we can use simple math to say that the winner needs to earn 50% + 1 of all of the votes cast. When plugging in the end-vote total estimates of 10,690 and 13,760, we get the following set of numbers:
| Total vote estimation | Votes needed to win | Day 1 votes counted | Votes outstanding |
| 10,690 | 5346 (minus blanks) | 5,623 | ~5,065 |
| 13,760 | 6,881 (minus blanks) | 5,623 | ~8,135 |
We’ll look at both of these potential outcomes and see what that tells us about the current state of the three contested races in Tahoma. I’ll be using these numbers in every race below.
Malia vs Dutch
This one seems pretty cut and dry, with Malia taking a sizeable 64.77% of the vote. However, it is still mathematically possible (if improbable) that Dutch could win.
If only 10,690 total votes are cast in this election then there are 5,065 votes outstanding. In this case Dutch is a true long shot, needing to take 65.8% of the remaining votes:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Malia | 3427 | 1,753 | 34.6% |
| Dutch | 1846 | 3,334 | 65.8% |
However if there are eventually 13,760 votes cast in this election, then there are 8,135 votes outstanding. Dutch stands a slightly greater chance of taking the win:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Malia | 3427 | 3,288 | 40.4% |
| Dutch | 1846 | 4,869 | 59.8% |
Pete vs Vincent
I’ll just quickly repeat the same experiment, using the same base reference numbers. With 10,690 total votes, Vincent Powell would need 56% of the remaining votes to win this race:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of Remaining votes to win |
| Pete | 2,931 | 2,245 | 44.3% |
| Vincent | 2,338 | 2,838 | 56% |
If 13,760 votes are cast with 8,135 uncounted, Vincent would need 53.7% of the remaining votes to win:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of Remaining votes to win |
| Pete | 2,931 | 3,780 | 46.5% |
| Vincent | 2,338 | 4,373 | 53.7% |
Matt vs Patrick
Finally, the closest race in the TSD school board elections is between Matt Carreon and Patrick Peacock. Using the same math above, if 10,690 total votes are cast and 5,065 have yet to be counted, Patrick would need 52.3% of the remaining votes to win this race:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Matt | 2,741 | 2,432 | 48% |
| Patrick | 2,523 | 2,650 | 52.3% |
And if there are 13,760 total votes are cast, Patrick would need 51.4% of the remaining votes to win:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Matt | 2,741 | 3,967 | 48.7% |
| Patrick | 2,523 | 4,185 | 51.4% |
Kent
There are only two contested races in Kent, in districts 2 and 3. 16,403 votes have currently been counted in these races. Like Tahoma, Kent has seen a decrease in the number of ballots counted on day one, but their number is much more similar to the number seen in 2021:
| Year | Day One Count | End Count |
| 2019 | 19,515 | 38,921 |
| 2021 | 16,964 | 32,108 |
| Average | 18,240 | 35,515 |
To repeat the math up above for Tahoma, let’s take the average turnout numbers and adjust them for current turnout to see what the possible outcomes would be. The average night one count in 2019 and 2021 was 18,240 and the average end total was 35,515. Adjusted for this year’s night one count of 16,403, the eventual total may be a low 31,940.
Kent’s baseline numbers:
| Total vote estimation | Votes needed to win | Day 1 votes counted | Votes outstanding |
| 31,940 | 15,971 (minus blanks) | 16,403 | ~15,540 |
| 35,515 | 17,258 (minus blanks) | 16,403 | ~19,110 |
As with Tahoma above, I will be using these baseline numbers in all of the calculations below.
Andy vs Meghin
If the low estimate of 31,940 total votes comes true, then there are approximately 15,540 votes outstanding right now. Andy would need 58.5% of the remaining votes to win
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Andy | 6,015 | 9,095 | 58.5% |
| Meghin | 8,579 | 6,531 | 42% |
If there are actually 35,515 total votes cast in this election, with a win number of 17,258 then Andy would need 56.9% of the remaining votes to win:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Andy | 6,015 | 10,882 | 56.9% |
| Meghin | 8,579 | 8,318 | 43.5% |
Leslie vs Donald
The race between Leslie Hamada and Donald Cook is very close, with only a 304 vote lead held by Leslie. With 31,940 total votes cast, Donald would need 51.3% of the uncounted votes to take the lead in this race:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Leslie | 7,342 | 7,676 | 49.4% |
| Donald | 7,038 | 7,980 | 51.3% |
If there are 35,515 votes cast, Donald would need just 53.5% of the remaining vote to win:
| Name | Votes held | New votes to win | % of remaining votes to win |
| Leslie | 7,342 | 9,464 | 49.4% |
| Donald | 7,038 | 9,768 | 51.4% |
When Will We Know?
The elections department will release new results every day at 4:30pm. In the past, the results by the first Friday after the election have been pretty reliable, but official certification doesn’t happen until three weeks after the election, on November 28.
Nov 8th Update
Likely due to the mail attack and subsequent evacuation of the Renton elections department, today’s ballot count drop was really small. I’ll do a full analysis on the closer races tomorrow, if we get a decent chunk. For now though: In Kent, Leslie Hamada added ten more votes to her lead over Donald Cook. In Tahoma, another 540 votes were counted in the Matt Carreon vs Patrick Peacock race and Peacock closed the gap somewhat. To achieve the winning percentage above he would have needed to claim 282 of those votes, and he secured 285.
This article was written by a member of the Tahoma Values Team. Do you have an article, letter to the editor, or statement you would like to publish on our site? Please contact Tahoma Values at TahomaValues@gmail.com
